The global financial landscape is shifting, and with gold having already completed its de-dollarisation, the ripple effects are poised to impact key sectors of the U.S. economy. As former President Donald Trump eyes a return to office, the economic challenges he faces are unique and complex. Let’s break down the critical areas where the impact will be felt:
1. US Real Estate: A Housing Crash in Tier 1 Cities
With de-dollarisation progressing, the U.S. housing market is likely to experience significant shifts. Cities traditionally dominated by fiat dollar inflows — such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles — could face severe downturns. Trump’s voter base includes many young Americans struggling to afford homes. A potential housing crash in these Tier 1 cities could create opportunities for new buyers but destabilize existing property investments.
2. US Stock Market: A Restrictive Force on Reforms
The U.S. stock market is expected to resist Trump’s aggressive economic reforms. While Trump may attempt to push bold policies, the market’s volatility will limit his ability to enforce rapid changes. Investors, corporations, and financial institutions will likely push back to protect their portfolios. This creates a delicate balance where Trump must stimulate economic recovery without destabilizing key market sectors.
3. US Treasury: A Looming $8 Trillion Debt Rollover
One of the most pressing concerns is the $8 trillion in U.S. Treasury debt scheduled for rollover in the next 6-8 months. To manage this, interest rate cuts will become inevitable. Lowering rates will ease the burden of refinancing such a massive debt load but may also weaken the dollar further.
4. US Dollar: The Final Battleground
By the last quarter of 2025, Trump’s primary tool for managing the economic fallout will be the U.S. dollar itself. With gold having completed its de-dollarisation cycle, the dollar may lose further ground in global trade dominance. This presents a complex challenge — weakening the dollar can boost exports but may also undermine investor confidence.
Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act
Trump’s economic strategy will require careful navigation of these intertwined sectors. His voter base’s demand for housing affordability, the stock market’s pressure to stabilize reforms, and the urgent need to manage Treasury debt will shape his policies. Ultimately, by Q4 of 2025, the strength of the U.S. dollar will stand as his final economic battleground.
The road ahead demands calculated decisions to minimize economic turmoil while maintaining stability in key markets.